Archive for 2013

December 2013 Quarter Review
Quarter4_2013

Fundamentally, corporate profits and the prospect of continued gains drove the equity markets in 2013. However, the massive stimulus of the Federal Reserve certainly had a significant impact in increasing equity valuations. Furthermore, rising interest rates have made bond investment less attractive and has put a theoretical ceiling on gains in housing, making equities all the more attractive. These factors added fuel to the market in 2013.

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September 2013 Quarter Review
Quarter3_2013

Optimism that growth will accelerate in the second half of 2013 propelled the stock market higher in the third quarter. U.S. gross domestic product grew a meager 1.1% in the first quarter and accelerated to 2.5% in the second. The third and fourth quarters are forecast by most economists to im-prove from these levels. We also postulate that some of the strength in the stock market came from a widely accepted view that stocks lag in the early summer months and seem to accelerate in the fall. While we do not believe there is sound merit to the belief, widely held investor sentiment will move the market and create its own reality.

 

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June 2013 Quarter Review
Quarter2_2013

After such a spectacular start for the equity markets in the first quarter of 2013, the nearly sideways performance of the second quarter feels a lot worse than it was. Our excite-ment through April and most of May has given way to in-creased consternation with the renewed volatility in the stock market in June as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed out the obvious- the easy money punch-bowl is not bottomless. Wall Street appears to have been anticipating that the free money party would last indefinite-ly and impetuously threw a tantrum when faced with the possibility that the program of Quantitative Easing might be reduced near the end of the year. From our perspective, the news should have been both expected and viewed in a more positive light. A reduction in stimulus is dependent on the Fed’s belief that the economy has progressed far enough that it can stand on its own. In the long-term, the strength of the economy will prove better for equity valuations than the Fed’s stimulus but it’s hard for investors to look that far ahead. We would welcome the removal of the stimulus in exchange for robust economic growth.

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March 2013 Quarter Review
Quarter1_2013

The March quarter of 2013 closed with the U.S. stock market at record highs. The year started strong with the agreement in Congress to avoid dramatic automatic tax increases and has been moving higher ever since spurred by strong corporate profits and monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. In general, the macro‐ economic data continues to show slow improvement with notable gains in employment and a continuing recovery in housing. The S&P 500 finished the quarter up 10.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a gain of 11.9%.

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